【摘要】 北极航道的通航是对传统国际贸易环境的重大冲击。本文通过随机前沿引力模型对中国与贸易伙伴在传统贸易环境下和北极航道通航环境下的贸易潜力进行估计和比较,量化评估北极航道对中国贸易潜力的影响。分析结果显示,中国出口效率和进出口效率分别为0.73和0.22,与航运距离呈显著负相关;北极航道开通将使中国对航道受益国家的出口潜力和进出口潜力平均提升10.5%和28.1%;以现有贸易规模为基础,中国与北极航道受益国家的出口平均增长空间为24.1%,进出口平均增长空间为463.6%。更多还原

【Abstract】 With distance being the core non-variable factor of international trade environment,the opening of the Arctic Passage has a strong impact on the traditional international trade environment.This paper evaluates and compares trade potentials of China with its main trading partners under the traditional circumstance and the Arctic Passage circumstance,estimated with the stochastic frontier gravity model.The analysis comes up with the result that China respectively has an export efficiency and gross trade efficiency of 0.73 and 0.22,which shows a strong negative correlation of trade potential with the shipping distance.The Arctic Passage would serve to improve China’s import potential by 10.5 percent and improve gross trade potential by 28.1 percent.Compared with the current trade stuation,the average export potential of China with countries along the Arctic Passage is expected to increase by 24.1% and average gross trade potential by 463.6%.更多还原